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Tested with real money by our research desk: bonus terms verified, payouts timed, licensing checked. Here is everything you need to decide if Metaculus deserves your bankroll.
Score verified by our research desk. Terms apply. 21+ (18+ in some regions). Please gamble responsibly.
Metaculus is a prediction market founded in 2015 — 11 years in operation — and currently holds a 8.3/10 composite score in our audit, based on real-money testing across account opening, deposits, platform quality, and timed withdrawals.
Metaculus covers Science, AI, geopolitics forecasting. Contracts are binary: winning positions settle at $1.00, losing at zero, and the trading price at any moment is the market's live probability estimate. Funding: Free; settlement speed: N/A.
Structure and oversight: Reputation-based (no money). Regulated venues offer standard financial protections; on-chain protocols offer transparency and self-custody instead. Verify the legal status of event trading in your jurisdiction before funding an account.
Current incentive: Forecasting Tournaments with Prizes. Unlike sportsbook bonuses, incentives in this category rarely carry wagering requirements — they are typically fee rebates, free assets, or feature access delivered after qualifying activity.
Check the qualifying conditions (minimum deposit, trade volume, or holding period) in the promotion terms before signing up, and never let a signup reward decide a platform choice on its own — fees and safety matter far more over time.
In our most recent payout trials, Metaculus processed withdrawals in N/A via its fastest supported method. Minimum deposit starts at Free.
Two habits keep cashouts fast anywhere: withdraw to the same method you deposited with (mismatches trigger manual review), and submit requests on weekday mornings when fiat rails batch-process during banking hours.
At 8.3/10, Metaculus is a solid, dependable choice with genuine strengths. Its defining strength is serious forecasters.
