Efficiency: The Sharpness Spectrum
NFL sides and totals are the most efficient lines on earth — billions wagered, every statistic public, professional syndicates on every number. Edges exist but are thin and demand serious modeling. At the other extreme, lower-league soccer, tennis challengers, and niche esports get thin attention from books' trading teams, leaving softer numbers for specialists.
What Makes a Sport Bettable
High game volume (more samples, faster feedback), rich public data, low draw frequency, and stable rosters all help a modeler. Player-prop markets in basketball and football are notably softer than game lines — books can't sharpen thousands of props nightly with equal rigor.
Practical Recommendations
Beginners: stick to major leagues' main lines while learning discipline — the vig is lowest and information is free. Aspiring winners: specialize narrow and deep in one league or prop niche you can know better than a generalist trading desk. Breadth is entertainment; depth is edge.