Information Edges
News latency is the cleanest edge: markets take minutes to fully digest breaking developments, and traders watching primary sources (court filings, official feeds, local reporting) beat the repricing. Domain specialization compounds it — the trader who understands Fed communication or a specific legal process reads implications the casual crowd misses. Trade where you know more, not where volume is loudest.
Behavioral Edges
Event markets inherit betting's documented biases: longshot bias (5¢ contracts on dramatic outcomes are chronically overpriced — selling them is a grind but a real one), favorite discounting near 90¢+ (certainty is systematically underbought because tying up capital for 5¢ bores people), and narrative chasing after big news, which overshoots. Base-rate discipline — 'how often does this class of thing actually happen?' — beats vibes with metronomic reliability.
Structural Edges
Cross-platform arbitrage: the same event priced 58¢ on Polymarket and 52¢ on Kalshi is a riskless spread minus fees — thin but real, especially around major events. Market making on wide-spread markets earns the spread from impatient traders. Portfolio thinking applies too: correlated positions (multiple markets resolving on the same underlying event) are one bet wearing costumes, and sizing should reflect it.