Core Markets
Match moneylines dominate, with games handicaps (e.g. -3.5 games) and total games as spread/total equivalents. Set betting (exact score in sets) offers higher variance and payouts. Know your book's retirement rules before betting: some void on any retirement, others grade after one completed set — it materially changes marginal bets on injury-flagged players.
Surfaces and Situations
Clay, grass and hard courts produce genuinely different rankings — big servers gain on grass, grinders on clay, and the market underadjusts for extreme surface specialists outside the elite. Fatigue is the other systematic angle: players after five-set marathons, late-night finishes, or long title runs underperform expectations measurably.
Live Tennis: The Sharpest Playground
Point-by-point scoring makes tennis the most liquid live betting sport. Momentum is largely narrative — models price it well — but physical signals (movement between points, medical timeouts) reach a watching human before the data feed. Serve-hold percentages by surface are the foundation of any decent live model.