Why ROI Beats Win Rate
A 60% win rate sounds elite — but at -200 odds it loses money, while a 35% win rate at +250 prints it. ROI normalizes everything to one number: profit per dollar staked. It is the only honest scoreboard across different odds, sports, and stake sizes.
Track every bet, calculate ROI monthly, and judge yourself over samples of at least 200 bets. Short-term results are dominated by variance; ROI over volume reveals whether you actually hold an edge.